Home   Log in   BEER MAP   BEER DEFINITIONS   BEER THEORY OF HISTORY  CONTACT US

Archive for the ‘Patriots-Falcons’ Category

Woodstock Inn Red Rack Ale brewed by Shipyard

March 18th, 2017 by Android | No Comments | Filed in Patriots-Falcons, Super Bowl LI, Uncategorized

DISB Rating– 86 – a bit heavy for desert island service and while tasty not a huge wow factor
TMTB rating – 86 -Unless you are at the Woodstock Inn it is not a must try. Certainly not something to avoided either.
Style Rating – 86 – Not really sure what style this is supposed to be. Closest guess may be an Irish Red Ale. In this case I prefer the slightly smoother offerings from Smithwicks and Sam and the flavour profile of Harpoon.

Woodstock Inn Red Rock Ale aroma hint of citrus, soy, and caramel; head moderate with a moderate retreat very little lacing color; Deep amber to light garnet. Flavor caramel with a hint of unsalted soy at the end and just a touch of bitterness body medium moderately high carbonation, Red rack brewed by shipyard same brewer as old thumper and a similar flavour profile.

As I said at the end of Samuel Adams Irish Red Ale , the percentages of pass to rush plays seems to justify the conclusion that the balance of pass to rush play calling by Atlanta in the Second Half was inappropriate.

Just to review here are the numbers in question

Falcons
Pass Plays%/Rushing Plays%

66.7%/33.3% – Second Half
57.73%/42.27% – Season average around 22 in league
60.86 %/ 39.14% – Game
52.63%/47.37% – First Half

“Clearly” the pundits say, “Kyle Shanahan’s use of 2/3rds passing plays for Atlanta, in teh second half with a 25 point lead, threw the game to the Patriots.”

Yet as Shanahan pointed out in an apologia, the Patriots defense had adjusted to the run in the Second Half and Atlanta needed to pass to have a chance to effectively execute their offense. Take a look at the numbers below:

Falcons First Half Rushing
8.8 yards per carry (5.38 yards if you remove the initial 37 yard run to start the game.)
9 carries total
6 carries for 5 or more yards
2 carries less than five yards but more than one yard
1 carry for one yard or less (the last carry of the half/ none for loss of yards)

Falcons Second Half Rushing
2.0 yards per carry
9 carries total
3 carries of 5 or more yards
1 carry for less than 5 but more than 1 yard
5 carries for 1 yard or less(three for loss of yards and another not counted here because it was negated by a holding penalty on the offense.)

That’s called second half adjustments people. That is Belichick and Patricia, not some chimera of an Atlanta Falcon team lacking in intestinal fortitude, or some imaginary Atlanta offensive brain trust burying their head in the sand. This was not Paris St. Germain who went into the soccer equivalent of a prevent defense and gave away a four goal first leg lead in the UEFA Champions League round of `16 to Barcelona.

This was the number 1 scoring defense in the NFL in 2016, finding its rhythm and stifling the NFL’s number 1 scoring offense. They decided to make Atlanta one dimensional and the numbers show that it worked. In this light no wonder Shanahan relied more heavily on the pass.1.

He needed to try to run clock and keep Atlanta’s defense off the field. Since the run was so ineffective he needed to risk the loss of running clock on an incompletion for the chance to obtain a first down and more real time between defensive appearances and possibly more clock running. Atlanta ran more plays and had a better time of possession in the Second Half than in the First Half. To that extent Shanahans clock management was an improvement over the first half.

As I pointed out in Long Trail Ale the Pats had a 9 minute 10 second time of possession advantage despite being down 21-3 in the first half. Was Shanahan incompetent in forging a 14-3 offensive point advantage in the First Half. In the second half the Patriots only managed 3 minute 56 second Time of Possession advantage. Shanahan took back more than five minutes of clock time, He increased Atlanta plays from 19 in the first half to 27 and reduced play differential from 24 to 17.

Here are a couple of stats that showed how well the Falcons really played.

Atlanta 1/8 third down conversions yet scored 21 offensive points against the Number 1 scoring defense in the league and the Falcons defense only surrendered 28 points during regulation and even scored 7 points.

Compare this to the Texans who were 3/16 on third down conversions, scored 16 points and with the number 1 defense in the league surrendered 34 points in regulation.

Or the Steelers, 9/15 on third down conversions, scored 17 offensive points, and with their fastest defense in years surrendered 36 points in the AFC Championship game.

The Pats gave up more points to the Falcons than any other team, regular and post season, except the Seahawks. Ryan posted a 144.1 Quarterback rating, while only attempting 23 passes all game; Brady finished with a 95.2 rating. The score was +5.37 points above the Pats Defense’s per game season average. (+12.37 if you count the points scored by the Falcons defense) In fact the Falcons offense exceeded the Patriots Defense’s season averages for points, rushing yards and passing yards. On the flipside the Patriots defense held the Falcons below their season offensive averages in all three categories as well. 2.

Many pundits want to adopt the “Falcons as colossal Super Bowl failures” narrative. Ultimately, it was not the Falcons weakness but the Patriots smarts, strength and luck that made the greatest Super Bowl comeback of all time possible. The credit belongs to the Patriots, not the blame to the Falcons.

1. Matt Ryan had 23 pass attempts thrown in the game, tying his lowest single game total all season. (8 in the first half of SB51; 15 in the second half of SB51) Additionally, he was sacked 5 times, 3 times in the Second Half, largely because the Patriots removed the run as a viable playing option.

2. The Patriots performed worse than their season average in 4 out of 6 major statistical categories. They only exceeded season averages in points scored and passing yards gained. The Falcons performed worse than their season average in 5 out of 6 major statistical categories. Only their rushing defense performed better than their season average. Brady the GOAT shredded the Falcons pass defense. This represents the largest statistical breakdown for Atlanta in Super Bowl 51. Below are some stats that allow for a comparison of season averages to Super Bowl 51 stats. Atlanta’s biggest discrepancies appeared in the passing game, both offensive and defensive passing stats. -45.31 yards worse than the Falcons offensive season average. +175.5 yards worse than the Falcons Defensive season average if you include overtime; +125.5 if you count regulation only.

2016-2017 Season Averages

Falcons

Defense
25.38 points pg
104.69 yards pg rushing
266.5 y pg
371.19 y pg

Offense
33.75 p pg
120.5 y pg rushing
295.31 y pg
415.81 y pg

Pats

Defense
15.63 points pg
88.56 yards pg rushing
237.88 y pg passing
326.44 y pg

Offense w&w/o Brady
27.56 p pg
117 y pg rushing
269.25 y pg passing
386.25 y pg

Super Bowl LI

Falcons

Total Yards – 344

Rushing Yards – 104
(+15.44 WPSAD)
(-16.5 WFSAO)

Passing Yards – 240
(+2.12 WPSAD)
(-45.31 WFSAO)

Points – 28 (21 Offense only)
(+12.37 WPSAD, +5.37 WPSAD[D only])
(-5.75 WFSAO, -12.75WFSAO[O only])

Pats

Total Yards – 546 (62 OT)

Rushing Yards – 104(12 OT)
(-.69 BFSAD; -12.69 BFSAD regulation[reg.])
(-13 WPSAO; -25 WPSAO reg.)

Passing Yards – 442 (50 OT)
(+175.5 WFSAD ; +125.5 WFSAD reg.)
(+172.5 BPSAO; +122.5 BPSAO reg.)

Points – 34 (6 OT)
(+ 8.62 WFSAD ; + 2.62 WFSAD reg.)
(+6.44 BPSAO; +0.44 BPSAO reg.)

BPSAD/BPSAO – Better than Pats Season Average (D – for Defense)(O – For Offense)
WPSAD/WPSAO – Worse than Pats Season Average

BFSAD/ BFSAO – Better than Falcons Season Average
WFSAD/ WFSAO – Worse than Falcons Season Average

– indicates below season average which is good for defenses, but bad for offenses
+ indicates above season average which is good for offenses, but bad for defenses